Time Series Decomposition and Forecasting: Using ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing to Predict with Trend and Seasonality
Forecasting is rarely about guessing the future. In practice, it is about learning the rhythm of the past and using that rhythm to make disciplined, defensible predictions. Time series data, such as daily orders, monthly revenue, website visits, or electricity demand, often contains repeating patterns and long-term movement that can mislead teams if analysed as…